Top docs' scariest healthcare predictions

With reports of extreme heat waves, rising sea levels, flooding, water scarcity, intense droughts, strong hurricanes, and declining biodiversity dominating the news headlines, it's clear that climate change is not just a distant concern; it's today’s reality and the biggest threat to health and humanity. 

The climate crisis is a global health emergency with far-reaching impacts on every part of life, from the food we eat, the air we breathe, the water we drink, and the spaces we inhabit.^[][] MDLinx spoke with physicians about their most alarming healthcare predictions for the future resulting from today’s environmental crises. Here's what they had to say.

Exacerbating health inequities

Though no one is immune to its effects, the health impact of climate change will disproportionately affect women, children, older adults, people with disabilities or chronic health conditions, people living in poverty, and other marginalized groups. 

“Climate change disproportionately affects those already vulnerable to health challenges: poor communities, newborns and children, women, ethnic minorities, migrants and displaced people, older populations, Indigenous Peoples, and individuals with pre-existing health conditions,” Dr. Ralph-Opara tells MDLinx. 

For instance, in times of mass displacement, disaster, extreme weather, and chaos, everyone—but especially women and children—is at an increased risk of harm, negative health outcomes, and serious mental health challenges, Dr. Ralph-Opara says. 

She shares this example with MDLinx: “In the aftermath of Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico in 2017, women and girls faced increased threats of violence and abuse and experienced poorer reproductive and maternal health outcomes due to food insecurity, exhaustion, heat, and waterborne diseases.” 

The WHO also emphasizes the differential distribution of health risks  from climate-change crises, noting that those whose health will be most affected are often the least responsible for the climate crisis.^[] These populations—people in low-income and disadvantaged countries and communities—also have the fewest resources to protect themselves.

Worsening food insecurity

The 2023 edition of The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World, a report issued by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, revealed that approximately 735 million people experienced hunger in 2022—an increase of 122 million since 2019.^[][] Additionally, the report indicated that 2.4 billion people experienced moderate or severe food insecurity in 2022.

What’s more, the report noted that more than 3.1 billion individuals could not afford a healthy diet. 

She notes an example: “In East Africa, recurring droughts decimated crops and livestock, resulting in severe food shortages and malnutrition, particularly among children.”

Increasing rates of non-communicable diseases

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are a significant public health issue, responsible for 74% of all global deaths.^[] Like climate change, NCDs have a greater impact on low and middle-income countries. Another prediction based on today’s events is that climate change will raise the burden of NCDs.^[]

Climate change events like heat waves and air pollution contribute to the prevalence of cardiovascular diseases, type 2 diabetes, dementia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, mental health disorders like anxiety and depression, and other NCDs through different mechanisms.

In addition, “air pollution exacerbates NCDs like asthma, cancer, and diabetes,” explains Dr. Ralph-Opara. Both Dr. Ralph-Opara and Dr. Krist have noted that recent wildfires in California dramatically impacted air quality and led to an increase in respiratory conditions such as asthma and COPD.

Victims, survivors, and witnesses of the climate crisis may also experience serious mental health challenges.

Disruptions to healthcare delivery

Experts predict climate change will impede the delivery of quality healthcare services by impacting healthcare infrastructure and workers. These ramifications will  contribute to the prevalence and burden of communicable diseases and NCDs alike.

It’s well-established that the healthcare system is currently grappling with a chronic shortage of healthcare workers and worker burnout. The WHO estimates a shortage of 10 million health workers by 2030, primarily in low- and lower-middle-income countries.^[]

“Rising temperatures, extreme weather events, and shifting disease patterns are already taking a toll on health workers who are our first line of defense against the health impacts of a rapidly changing climate,” she warns. Worse, many are not equipped or trained to address the health implications of a warming planet.

For instance, in regions with historically mild climates, she explains that health workers may not know how to identify or treat diseases like malaria or dengue fever, which are becoming more prevalent due to increasing temperatures.

Climate change will drive a surge in patient numbers, overwhelming an already short-staffed healthcare system. Already, in the US, on days with extreme heat, there is a significant rise in hospitalizations and emergency room visits. According to Dr. Krist, Virginia alone has about 4,600 additional emergency room visits and 2,000 hospitalizations each year due to heat-related illnesses.

The aftermath of Hurricane Dorian in the Bahamas left healthcare services in disarray, with prolonged power outages in hospitals and a shortage of essential medical supplies. Rising sea levels have also endangered health infrastructure in major coastal cities like Jakarta and New Orleans, prompting the need to relocate or redesign critical facilities, she tells MDLinx.

The health industry itself is responsible for nearly 5% of all greenhouse gas emissions,^[] meaning those at the helm must take steps to reduce its contribution to the climate crisis, while advocating for necessary measures at the state and federal level to slow the pace of our warming planet.