COVID in July? CDC tracker shows rising cases and hospitalizations

The US could be experiencing a summer surge of COVID-19. Recent data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) shows that while deaths from COVID-19 are on the decline—with a 25% decrease in deaths since earlier this month—infection rates, hospitalization numbers and emergency room visits have increased.

According to CDC data, this week, the US saw a 0.8% increase in COVID-19 test positivity along with a 13.3% increase in hospitalizations and an 18.2% increase in emergency department visits.(1) Fortunately, the proportion of ER visits attributed to COVID-19 remains low in most states. Hawaii is an exception, with between 3% to 4.4% of ER visits attributed to COVID-19—a range considered “moderate” by the CDC.

Deaths, while currently trending downward, increased in the first week of July, according to USA Today.(2)

Should we be worried about a summer surge?

While an increase in infections is never good news—for COVID-19 or other diseases—doctors say that, for now, the current rise is not something hospitals are unprepared for.

Charles Bailey, MD, the medical director for infection prevention at Providence St. Joseph and Providence Mission Hospitals in Aliso Viejo, California, says that “although there has been a recent increase in COVID cases in many parts of the country, COVID activity remains historically low in comparison to what we experienced during the period of the pandemic.”

An increase in COVID-19 around summer holidays, like the fourth of July, does not ring unexpected bells of alarm, he says.

Why are we experiencing a summer surge?

Many factors could be contributing to the recent increase in COVID-19 cases. Some of these may include a changing of COVID-19 variants—waning protection of vaccinations—depending on how long ago a person received their most recent shot—waning protection from natural immunity—due to previously low rates of infection—and dismissal of public health practices like social distancing and masking, Dr. Bailey says.

“Opportunities for exposure to even a low number of infected individuals has increased as we return to pre-pandemic levels of traveling and gathering with little regard for pandemic era masking practices or social distancing,” Dr. Bailey says.

Still, that's not to say that actions are to blame. “Contracting any infection is the end result of the interplay of many factors: the virulence or strength of the infecting agent, host immunity and overall health, and the odds of any exposure and the intensity of such an exposure,” Dr. Bailey adds.

If you have COVID-19 this summer

For people who are symptomatic and test positive for COVID-19 this summer, the CDC recommends staying home until symptoms resolve and then waiting an extra 24 hours before resuming activities. In the five days following, the agency recommends people take extra precautions like(3)

• Testing again for the virus

• Taking more steps for cleaner air

• Enhancing hygiene practices

• Wearing a well-fitting mask

• Keeping a distance from others

This current CDC guidance is significantly more relaxed than agency advice from the early days of the pandemic, in 2020, and has garnered mixed responses from healthcare professionals over the last few months.

Dr. Bailey says he feels the CDC guidance is “reasonable” as it recognizes requirements for disease control “while not unreasonably limiting the ability to continue what is necessary to maintain one’s mental and financial well-being.”

He recommends encouraging patients to test for COVID-19 if they feel symptomatic, if they know they were exposed to someone with COVID-19, or if they are in a high-risk group and preparing for a major surgical event.